The next tropical system could be brewing


AUSTIN (KXAN) – After more than two weeks of no tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Basin, we are seeing signs of increasing activity and the potential for the second named storm of the season.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and Tropical Storm Alex formed on June 5 before rapidly becoming post-tropical.

The National Hurricane Center expects a group of clouds from West Africa to continue to track west and potentially expand into northeastern waters. ‘South America. As it stands, the National Hurricane Center puts the chance of becoming a tropical depression at only 20%.

Potential for tropical development in 5 days

However, some of our longer-term computer models offer higher chances of development within and beyond five days. In fact, the European ensemble pattern shows a near guarantee of a tropical depression (tropical system with winds below 39 mph) forming within a week.

Probability of a tropical depression
Probability of a tropical depression (Image: Weatherbell)

The chances of a tropical storm (winds of 39 to 73 mph) are much lower, as you would expect, but are still between 70 and 80%.

Probability of a tropical storm
Probability of a tropical storm (Image: Weatherbell)

Impact of the Gulf of Mexico?

It is too early to tell what impact, if any, we might see in the Gulf of Mexico. The general track of the potential system could take it into the Gulf of Mexico after July 3, but forecast accuracy is very limited that far for a system that hasn’t even formed yet.

List of tropical Atlantic names 2022
List of tropical Atlantic names 2022

Stay with the First Warning Weather team as we track development potential. If the storm became a tropical storm and it was called Bonnie.


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